2023 Could Be All About Junk Bonds


Now that we are one day into the new year, there are 2 pieces of advice we can give you.

First, is to learn a strategy and then become a specialist in that strategy.

For example, why not pick phases? We love them. And, once you understand the phases on a daily and weekly timeframe, your trading will vastly improve.

Secondly, learn to follow bonds. Sure, short-term bonds work well as do the 20+ year-long bonds.

However, we are all about the high yield high debt junk bonds.

We basically use the bonds to determine risk on/off. And we find that quieting the noise, especially with the dreary forecasts for this year, helps us trade a lot better.HYG Daily Chart

The chart of iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:HYG) (or SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:JNK) if one prefers) has been an excellent guide to the short and long-term market moves. It also keeps us out of harm’s way during the chop.

In June 2022, HYG bottomed. So did the market. Then, HYG had a phase change in July but could not quite get going enough to clear the 200-DMA. And so, the market sputtered.

Then the sharp reversal candle in October gave traders a good bottom risk point. The ensuing rally took the price right up to the December high and the 200-DMA.

Currently, HYG sits right under the 50-DMA. It also closed green on a red day in the indices.

That tells us that risk appetite remains regardless. HYG outperforms the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), and the momentum had a bullish cross while the momentum trades above the moving averages.

And most importantly, as experts in phases, it tells us to watch that 50-DMA carefully.

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 375 support and 384 resistance
  • (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)): 170 pivotal support and 175 resistance
  • SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA)): 325 support and 334 resistance.
  • Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): 260 support and 267 resistance
  • SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE): 56 support and resistance 61.
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH): Support is 196 and 205 resistance.
  • iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSE:IYT): 210 pivotal support and 215 is now resistance.
  • iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB): 127 is pivotal support and 133 overhead resistance.
  • SPDR® S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT): 57 pivotal support and 63 is now resistance. Holding 60.


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